Missouri Kansas City

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	284.0
Current RPI:	284
Expected SOS:	157
Current SOS:	157
Current Record:	7-24
Expected Record:	7-24
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-9
Current OOC Record:	2-12
Expected OOC Record:	2-12
Expected OOC RPI:	274
Expected OOC SOS:	104

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-24	284.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri Kansas City.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	75-36	L	0%
11-17	Albany (130.0)	AE	N	62-59	L	0%
11-18	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	N	63-57	W	100%
11-23	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	91-45	L	0%
11-29	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	79-65	W	100%
12-1	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	63-68	L	0%
12-5	North Dakota (226.0)	BSky	A	70-73	W	100%
12-8	Louisville (3.0)	BE	A	99-47	L	0%
12-16	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	71-81	L	0%
12-19	Iowa St. (41.0)	B12	H	61-76	L	0%
12-22	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	65-66	L	0%
12-29	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	52-44	L	0%
12-31	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	77-65	L	0%
1-3	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	61-77	L	0%
1-5	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	44-63	L	0%
1-9	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	66-78	L	0%
1-12	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	86-90	W	100%
1-17	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	81-68	L	0%
1-19	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	59-63	W	100%
1-22	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	61-63	L	0%
1-26	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	59-67	L	0%
1-31	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	71-34	L	0%
2-2	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	88-57	L	0%
2-6	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	66-45	L	0%
2-9	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	80-65	W	100%
2-14	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	60-65	L	0%
2-16	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	74-86	L	0%
2-23	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	68-62	L	0%
2-28	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	53-50	L	0%
3-2	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	44-48	W	100%
3-10	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	N	69-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri Kansas City's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Missouri Kansas City's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Missouri Kansas City.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	26.42	26.42	24.53	24.53	-13.46	-13.46
North Dakota St.	Sum	5.77	5.77	67.86	67.86	2.06	2.06
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.25	4.25	68.97	68.97	1.61	1.61
Western Illinois	Sum	4.17	4.17	69.23	69.23	1.60	1.60
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.15	4.15	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
IUPUI	Sum	4.12	4.12	14.29	14.29	-2.94	-2.94
South Dakota	Sum	4.11	4.11	30.77	30.77	-1.58	-1.58
Oakland	Sum	4.09	4.09	42.86	42.86	-0.58	-0.58
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.09	4.09	29.63	29.63	-1.66	-1.66
Houston Baptist	GWC	3.31	3.31	34.62	34.62	-1.02	-1.02
Utah Valley	GWC	1.92	1.92	33.33	33.33	-0.64	-0.64
North Dakota	BSky	1.82	1.82	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	1.75	1.75	78.12	78.12	0.98	0.98
Iowa St.	B12	1.72	1.72	65.62	65.62	0.54	0.54
Seton Hall	BE	1.69	1.69	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
Louisville	BE	1.66	1.66	84.85	84.85	1.16	1.16
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.64	1.64	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.64	1.64	34.62	34.62	-0.50	-0.50
Albany	AE	1.64	1.64	69.70	69.70	0.65	0.65
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	67.74	67.74	0.58	0.58
Ohio St.	B10	1.64	1.64	78.12	78.12	0.92	0.92
Appalachian St.	SC	1.61	1.61	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Morehead St.	OVC	0.38	0.38	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.37	0.37	25.00	25.00	-0.18	-0.18
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.28	0.28	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.28	0.28	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.25	0.25	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.22	0.22	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.22	0.22	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.20	0.20	28.00	28.00	-0.09	-0.09
Kansas	B12	0.20	0.20	85.29	85.29	0.14	0.14
New Orleans	ind	0.17	0.17	18.18	18.18	-0.11	-0.11
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	23.33	23.33	-0.08	-0.08
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
West Virginia	B12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Belmont	OVC	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.12	0.12	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	79.31	79.31	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.10	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01